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The Support Policy Of Cotton City Is Less Than &Nbsp; There Are Many Uncertain Factors In The Market Outlook.

2012/3/9 10:40:00 8

At the end of March, state purchase and storage

policy

After the end, the structural imbalance between the absolute amount of resources and the reduction of high-grade cotton will be the main contradiction of the market.

The subsequent changes in textile consumption, quota distribution and rhythm, sowing and weather conditions will have an impact on cotton market.

Limited support for cotton purchase and storage policy in the new year

2012/2013 year

cotton

Storage and storage content compared with 2011/2012, the purchase and storage price increased by 600 yuan / ton, to 20400 yuan / ton, the scope of storage and storage and the quality of purchase and storage have been relaxed, to a greater extent, to ensure that cotton purchase and storage can be carried out smoothly.

However, there is no bright spot in the new year's purchase and storage policy. The price is even slightly lower than expected in the market expectations. Therefore, since the date of publication, cotton prices have been rising at a limited level, or even once the fundamentals have been suppressed.

In the market trend, India abruptly banned cotton exports, and the market reversed its decline.

India's export policy is afraid of change.

As we all know, China's cotton dependence on foreign trade is very high, and its linkage with the US cotton is over 0.95.

Due to the huge increase in imports, domestic cotton prices are subject to external demand.

market

The impact is larger.

According to the export situation in recent years, the total export volume of India cotton is about half of that of the United States cotton, and the proportion of imports is only inferior to that of the United States.

Since September 2011, India cotton imports are ranked first in the single month, followed by Australian cotton, while US cotton imports are relatively small.

As of March 5th, India has actually exported 1 million 598 thousand tons of cotton, and more than 500 thousand tons of cotton will be banned from export.

From a quantitative point of view, the volume of shipment has not been much, and the share of India cotton imported to China is also not large, which will not have a great impact on the domestic market supply.

For the United States, the degree of profitability should be higher than domestic.

Because of the reduction of competitors, other countries are moving to the US cotton market, and the demand for us cotton will increase.

However, the ban on exports in India is more damaging to the interests of domestic cotton traders, so the ban will be changed and will be unfavorable to cotton prices.

The focus of the cotton market in the late period will shift more to the fundamentals.

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Buy spot sell futures arbitrage opportunities

There are many uncertain factors in the future. It is difficult to carry out unilateral unilateral operations. Investors are advised to sell high and sell low.

In terms of arbitrage, opportunities are greater.

The price difference between the March contract price and the spot price, which is about to be delivered, is about 1000, which is far beyond the normal fluctuation range. As the delivery date approaches, the possibility of narrowing the price gap gradually increases, and it can buy arbitrage for spot selling futures.

For enterprises with a large number of stocks, it is a reasonable choice to sell hedging according to the actual situation.