Cotton Supply Relaxed Pattern Is Difficult To Change In The Short Term

According to customs statistics, from September 2014 to July 2015, China's total import of cotton was 1 million 600 thousand and 900 tons, down 1 million 197 thousand and 700 tons compared with the same period last year.

But at the same time, the number of imported veils has increased rapidly, especially the low-grade yarn entering the domestic market and occupying the market share of domestic yarn.

In the spot market, the domestic 3128B real estate cotton market price is 13000 yuan / ton, down 23.07% compared to the same period.

The reason is mainly due to

High storage pressure remained, cotton turnover was light.

It is understood that due to weak market demand, coupled with competition from imported cotton, cotton reserves have been caught in an awkward situation of indigestion.

In the second week of August this year, the National Treasury plan sold 254 thousand and 300 tons of cotton reserves, and the actual turnover was only 7 thousand and 700 tons, with a turnover rate of 3.03%.

From January 2015 to June, China has accumulated

1 million 184 thousand tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 20% over the same period last year.

The import yarn of 3 countries in Pakistan and Vietnam is basically the same.

In imported yarn, medium and low count yarn has a larger price advantage than domestic yarn.

Relevant data show that domestic cotton prices have shown a downward trend in recent years, and constantly refresh nearly 5 years of historical lows.

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Cotton is the first major agricultural product in China to abolish temporary storage policy instead of target price support. Since last year, the whole cotton industry chain has undergone tremendous changes due to policy adjustment.

As time goes on, all participants in the cotton industry chain are adjusting themselves to the fluctuation rhythm of the cotton market.

The state started the temporary storage policy in the main cotton producing areas in China since 2011. The temporary storage price of cotton was raised from 19800 yuan / ton (standard grade lint) in 2011 to 20400 yuan / ton in 2013.

Li Li, a cotton analyst at Huaan futures, told reporters that during the three consecutive years of open storage and purchase policy, the State Reserve storehouse collected 16 million 180 thousand tons of standard lint, which is two times the annual consumption of domestic products, while the total reserves in the three years are only 4 million 200 thousand tons.

That is to say, the net storage capacity of the national reservoir is as high as 12 million tons, and the total volume of the national storage is estimated to be over 14 million tons, which is equivalent to the production demand of the downstream industry for two years.

The implementation of the temporary storage policy, while protecting the interests of cotton farmers, also made the domestic cotton market out of line with the international market. The production cost of textile and garment enterprises increased, and the international competitiveness of their products was greatly reduced, and the export volume dropped sharply.

In order to change the passive situation of domestic cotton storage and storage, last year, the domestic cotton market support policy was adjusted to the target price support of 19800 yuan / ton for Xinjiang cotton area from the past new cotton temporary storage. Compared with the temporary storage policy, the purchase price of Xinjiang cotton was reduced by 600 yuan / ton. The central government also subsidized cotton farmers in the main cotton producing areas of Anhui, Shandong and other 9 provinces, with a ceiling of not more than 2000 yuan / ton (lint).

The target price of Xinjiang cotton area has been lowered to 19100 yuan / ton this year, and the Cotton Subsidy Policy in the mainland has not yet been introduced.

Reporters learned that although the domestic and international cotton market prices further closer, but the domestic and foreign cotton prices under the 1% tariff is still 2000 yuan / ton, import cotton prices still occupy relative advantage.

Under the strict control of import quotas, cotton imports are decreasing year by year.

Cotton growers have greatly reduced their planting income.

According to the monitoring of the price and cost investigation and Supervision Bureau of the provincial Price Bureau, we found that the average selling price of cotton in the cotton area of our province last year was 676.65 yuan per 50 kilograms, compared with 50 yuan per 977.03 yuan in 2013, a decrease of 300.38 yuan, and the net profit of cotton per mu decreased by 280.13 yuan compared with that of last year.

Li Li told Keji, with the sharp decline in planting income, the actual cotton planting area in the whole country is expected to be 52 million 640 thousand mu this year, a decrease of 13 million 450 thousand mu compared with 2014 and a decrease of 20%.