The International Cotton Advisory Committee Looks Forward To The Future Of The Cotton Market.

In 2016/17, although the global cotton planting area is expected to be reduced by 1% to 31 million 100 thousand hectares, the average yield per unit area is expected to increase from 5% to 49 kg / mu, and the output is expected to increase by 5% to 23 million tons.

The global cotton production and demand forecast released by the international cotton advisory board (ICAC) in May showed that the increase in cotton production per unit in May led to an increase in cotton production.

India's cotton planting area is expected to reach 12 million hectares, an increase of 1% over the same period last year. Although there are still concerns about insect pests, the improvement of the wind and rain this year is expected to increase India's cotton yield by 6% to 34.7 kg / mu. India's cotton production is expected to return to 6 million 300 thousand tons, up 8% over the same period last year, and is still the largest country in the world's output.

China's cotton planting area is expected to decline by 10% to 3 million 100 thousand hectares, down for fifth consecutive years, and cotton production is expected to be 4 million 700 thousand tons, down 10% from the same period last year, the lowest level since this century.

The cotton planting area in the United States is estimated at 3 million 400 thousand hectares, an increase of 5% over the same period last year. According to the average output of 61.9 kg / mu in the past four years, the output of cotton is estimated to be 3 million 200 thousand tons, up 14% over the same period last year.

The cotton planting area in Pakistan is expected to be 2 million 700 thousand hectares, a decrease of 5% over the same period, but the average yield per unit area is expected to recover from 25% to 44.1 kg / mu, and cotton production is expected to grow 19% to 1 million 800 thousand tons.

In 2016/17, global cotton consumption is expected to remain at 23 million 600 thousand tons, mainly because other fibers are more competitive than cotton.

China's consumption is expected to be reduced by 5% to 6 million 800 thousand tons, but Vietnam's consumption is expected to grow 11% to 1 million 200 thousand tons, Bangladesh's growth of 10% to 1 million 200 thousand tons, India's growth of 3% to 5 million 400 thousand tons, and Pakistan's growth of 1% to 2 million 200 thousand tons.

In 2016/17, global cotton imports are expected to grow by 1% to 7 million 400 thousand tons. China's digestion will continue to restrict imports of cotton, and imports will be reduced by 8% to 947 thousand tons.

In contrast, imports from outside China are expected to grow by 3% to 6 million 500 thousand tons, and Bangladesh and Vietnam are expected to import 1 million 200 thousand tons.

US cotton supply is increasing and exports are expected to grow 18% to 2 million 300 thousand tons.

India's domestic cotton consumption has increased, and its export volume is expected to be reduced by 19% to 1 million tons.

In 2016/17, due to the global production and demand gap reaching 930 thousand tons, the end of the world cotton inventory is expected to decline by 5% to 20 million 400 thousand tons, and China's final inventory is expected to decline by 10% to 10 million 800 thousand tons, but the end stocks in other regions are expected to grow 3% to 8 million 700 thousand tons.

The inventory consumption ratio outside China has been maintained at around 36%.